Coming soon
Economic analysis that keeps score.
First Thing is being built to test competing explanations of the economy on the same dated data: what each one expects, what would prove it wrong and, later, which one held up.
Complete the survey and get a founding-member price when First Thing launches.
Everyone has a view on the economy. Few are ever checked.
- Views are rarely accountable. They are seldom dated in a form anyone can check, seldom say what would prove them wrong, and are quietly rewritten once events move.
- One lens at a time. The same numbers can tell a monetary, a fiscal or a credit story. You usually get the one the writer prefers, not the place where serious explanations disagree.
- The data moves. GDP and jobs figures are revised for years. Judging an old call against today's numbers is unfair in both directions.
Treat analysis like data.
Dated, sourced, versioned, and checked afterwards.
- Record what was known, and when. Every number points to its source and the date it became known. Revisions are added, never written over.
- Run competing theories on the same data. Each theory is a lens. Every lens will read the same snapshot, and none will see the others' conclusions.
- Write scenarios that can be wrong. Each lens will give at least two branches, each with a trigger to watch and a condition that would rule it out. "Not enough information" counts as an honest answer.
- Keep score. When the horizon passes, each branch will be checked against what happened. Over time, that builds a record of which reasoning holds up, and when.
Data chain: working (test corpus) · Economic engine: in build
These four steps are the work of Atlas Research, the engine behind First Thing. Step 1 works today, on a small test corpus. Steps 2 to 4 are specified but not yet running.
What you'll get is partly up to you.
First Thing will be research for people who need to understand what is changing in the economy, and why. The engine behind it, Atlas Research, will also provide datasets for people who build their own models. Coverage starts with the United States, then Switzerland and Europe.
The exact shape of the first version isn't fixed yet. Tell us what you need, and it will help decide what gets built first.
Built in the open.
First Thing is built on Atlas Research, an engine whose build is public.
- Public sources only, captured and fingerprinted. One real example is on GitHub, checkable in one command.
- Every number is traceable to the exact document it came from.
- A map of economic theory: 23 families and 72 named lenses as of September 2026, each stating what would count against it. The map is uneven, and the counts are published.
- Language models are a tool, never a source of facts.
- The status is public, including what isn't built yet.
Help shape the first version.
About three minutes, often less. Your answers help decide what First Thing builds first. For people aged 16 and over.
Join the early-access list.
One email when First Thing is ready, and a short note when a new article is out. For people aged 16 and over.
Thanks, you're on the list. A short welcome email is on its way.